Four mana

Liesa, Shroud of Dusk

White / black · Commander · 99-card library

ANGELS / COMMANDER

Mana base 36 / 99

Editable example mana base. Each land makes one mana. All enter untapped; no rocks, ramp or mulligans.

YOUR COMMANDER

Liesa, Shroud of Dusk

Liesa, Shroud of Dusk, original Commander Legends card

Slawomir Maniak · CMR 286

Right mana by turn 543.5%

Enough mana, including colors

Five lands, any colors45.6%

ignoring the colored cost

Average first turn7.79

with the right mana

First turn at 75%10

chance of the right mana

Liesa is available from the command zone. Her commander tax costs life; the mana cost stays the same.

Mana by turn

Choose a bar to inspect it
36 lands / 99 cards · turn-one draw Right colors Enough lands

A white/black dual land can pay for white or black, once per turn. It cannot pay both at once. The dashed line marks 75%.

Exact values & calculation
Chance of having enough mana by turn
Turn Right mana Enough lands

The calculation counts draws without replacement. It first finds the chance of seeing each possible number of lands, then counts which combinations of white-only, black-only, dual and colorless lands can pay the card’s exact cost. Each dual is assigned to one color.

A known opening hand specifies its total lands, without specifying their colors. Future draws remove those seven cards; the land colors are averaged across possible hands.

The average includes long waits. The 75% figure is the first turn at which at least three quarters of hands have the right mana. The model assumes one land play per turn, all lands untapped and no extra draws, rocks, ramp, discounts or disruption. Life payments are assumed affordable.

Liesa is always available from the command zone. For the other Angels, these are mana probabilities; drawing the Angel is outside this model. Giada’s mana ability is not included.

Angels to compare

Choose a card to use its printed mana cost.

MANA BY TURN 5
Starting mana base: 16 Plains, 14 Swamps, six W/B duals

These six duals can each produce white or black. The example assumes Godless Shrine enters untapped, Vault of Champions has two opponents, and life payments are affordable. The counts above let you match your own mana base.

Five mana does not mean turn five.

Liesa needs five mana, including two white and one black. With the starting 36-land mana base and a turn-one draw, fewer than half of random hands can pay that cost on turn five. Extra lands help; the right mix of colors matters too.

Liesa also changes the usual commander-tax calculation: each previous command-zone cast adds a two-life payment rather than extra mana. Her base mana cost remains the same. Official ruling ↗

THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE

In Development — The Deadly Four-Mana Mark

Alexander Shearer · ChannelFireball · April 4, 2012

This is the article behind the idea. Shearer examines the time needed to reach higher mana costs. The probabilities and averages in this calculator are computed here; “four is five” is a paraphrase.